China’s post-zero-COVID Omicron wave: A Bayesian analysis

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 48, December 2025. SignificanceChina’s exit from its “dynamic zero-COVID” policy in late 2022 triggered a major Omicron wave. Our analysis of national surveillance data suggests that approximately 88% of the population was infected by mid-February 2023. Following the policy …